The Guardian reports on the potential threat posed to world health if the Ebola virus were to become endemic in West Africa:
Scientists are warning of a real risk that the Ebola virus disease could become endemic in west Africa if efforts to end the epidemic slacken as the number of cases falls.
All previous outbreaks of Ebola were stamped out within months and the virus disappeared from the human population each time. Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, however, have been in the grip of the virus for more than a year. While the numbers of cases dropped dramatically in December and early January, they have now plateaued and there are fears that the disease may not be totally eradicated.
“There is that risk,” said Prof Mike Turner, head of infections at the Wellcome Trust. “You can’t quantify how great that risk is but that risk is there. It is not going to be a smooth ride.”
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If Ebola were to become endemic, said Turner, the virus would have to mutate a little. At the moment, it does not linger in human hosts but causes severe illness very rapidly and goes on to kill at least half of them, which does not help its survival.
The difference between the current epidemic and those in the past is one of scale. Previous Ebola outbreaks affected a few hundred people, but more than 23,000 people have been infected in west Africa, of whom more than half will have died. “There has been more exposure of the virus to humans and a greater chance that it will adapt to a virus that will remain in humans,” said Turner.
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